Know your numbers without drowning in spreadsheets.

📖 My Story

When I started my first t-shirt business, I was sure the numbers were going to be easy. I figured every wholesale customer would order at least 40 shirts, and that at least 1 out of every 5 sales calls would turn into a paying customer.

Boy, was I wrong. It turned out more like 1 in 20 calls actually closed, and most customers only ordered the minimum—24 shirts. My projections were way off, and it nearly sank me before I even got going.

That’s when I learned the hard truth: most of us overestimate sales in the beginning.

📖 Why This Matters

Financial projections are one of the biggest traps for new business owners. Some people get lost in endless details, building 30-tab spreadsheets before they’ve made a single sale. Others create pie-in-the-sky numbers that will never happen.

Neither approach helps. What you really need is a simple, realistic way to see if your idea makes sense.

📝 Quick Exercise (10 minutes)

Start with this thought experiment:

1. How many sales do you expect to make per day?
2. How many days a week will you realistically be selling?
3. Multiply those numbers to get a weekly total.

👉 Now cut that number in half. That’s closer to reality.

Example:

• You expect 4 sales per day × 5 days = 20 sales a week
• Cut in half = 10 sales a week (realistic baseline)